2011 Political Outlook
Posted on January 11, 2011
Letter from VOX Global President, Robert Hoopes that appeared in The Intersection
Yesterday, the third Speaker of the House in five years was sworn into office. One of the largest freshman classes in history just arrived in Washington – and many of them are entirely new to governing. The party change in the House also means new committee chairmen and new ranking members. And hundreds of new staff that are critical to the operation of Congress will be occupying the House and Senate office buildings. At the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, the President and Vice President are preparing to announce new chiefs of staff and to unveil further changes to their communications and economic teams.
More than half of the states – 28 in total – will be inaugurating new governors in January. Additionally, fifteen states have had one or both legislative chambers flip from Democratic to Republican control. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, one out of every four state officials is new to the job in 2011. In the Granite State of New Hampshire, the citizens elected 100 new members to the state house – one quarter of the entire legislature.
If you’re still reeling from those sweeping changes, there’s not much relief in sight: the race for president in 2012 officially starts now. At this moment Republican candidates for president – there could be as many as 15 realistic challengers – are quietly lining up top political operatives to move or set up campaign offices in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and all the Super Tuesday states. These operatives will be hiring personnel and developing the infrastructure for fundraising, media relations, messaging and advance operations. They will also have to adapt to the verified value of social media and social networks to distinguish their candidate from the field.
By any definition this has been a change election, and it’s more than likely that we’ll see the theme of change carry into the next election. If you are a trade association, corporation, NGO or small business, a few lessons are clear in this new environment:
1. You can’t expect these newly elected members to know anything about your business or industry. You will have to tell and show them yourself.
2. Regulators are playing an increasingly critical role in governance. With large pieces of legislation passed in the last two years at the federal level and hundreds of local regulations from siting issues to EPA regulations pending, these entities will have enormous influence over what happens in 2011 and beyond.
3. Whatever you do, do it online.
Produced by the bipartisan team at VOX Global, I am pleased to introduce you to “The Intersection” – an insightful and timely resource designed to help you anticipate and prepare for public policy challenges and opportunities that you and your organization may face.
We look forward to your thoughts and feedback on this first of many editions throughout the year and welcome the opportunity to speak with you in more detail about our ideas and point of view.
