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Dispatch from Iowa

Posted on January 2, 2012

As Delta 4670 broke through the clouds on its descent to the Des Moines airport, we were quickly greeted with the 40-50mph wind gusts and turbulance that had been promised by our Captain before takeoff. This adventurous landing was no doubt symbolic of what would lie ahead for me in the great state of Iowa over the next couple of days. In what many are calling the most fascinating race for the GOP presidential nomination in years, we are a mere 48 hours away from crowning a Caucus winner and the race is still as wide open as my four-year old son’s eyes on Christmas morning.

I have been on the ground in Des Moines now for about six hours.  And, while I have not yet had the pleasure of interacting with actual Caucus goers, I have connected with some embedded members of the media and spent some time at the state GOP headquarters.  What I have been moved by is that, to a person, no one has a feel for who is going to win this thing — which is unusual two days out.  A reporter friend of mine, who has covered many Iowa Caucuses, told me that he has never seen Iowa Republicans more confused or uncertain about what they are going to do when they show up to their Caucus meetings on Tuesday at 7pm.  After hearing this, I went back to my hotel room to do a deeper dive on the results of the most recent Des Moines Register poll that came out last night (http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/31/romney-leads-paul-in-new-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-santorum-surging/) — a poll that has historically been consistent with the final election results.  What strikes me is that there seems to be some shifts in voter priorites.  Though typically driven by “values voters”, this year’s Caucus seems to have larger group of participants putting a greater emphasis on the economy and electability. That’s not to say there isn’t a segment that is determined to prevent a Romney victory.  However, the numbers seem to represent reconsideration among many traditional Caucus goers who see a window of opportunity in the general election that includes Obama’s vulnerability with independants who voted for him in ’08 along with a message void to be filled on economic policy.  This shift has most certainly driven Romney advisers to keep him in the state for the next three days rather than pounding the pavement in New Hampshire — as was originally planned.  It has also validated the significant tv ad buy Romney has made over the last few weeks — an amount that has never been seen in previous Iowa Caucuses.

There was something else that caught my attention today when I joined Iowa GOP Chairman, Matt Strawn, on a walk-thru of the Caucus media center. The entire set-up is being sponsored primarily by Google and, to say they went all out, doesn’t do it justice. What is interesting about this is that Google has recently made a concerted effort to beef up its Washington, DC presence and political engagement.  This sponsorship is certainly consistent with that new initiative and is a reminder that, no matter how successful a business or industry is, it realizes it is never out of the view of the federal government (i.e., Microsoft in the early 90′s).  It is important to point out that this media center is for coverage of both the Republicans and Democrats on Caucus night (the Democrats technically Cacucus eventhough they already have their nominee).

Tomorrow is sure to be an educational and insightful day on the eve of Caucus night. I will be working closely with party officials on the operational and communication elements as well as making some media appearances myself (MSNBC Live at 11:30 EST and a CNBC online interview). Please look for my day 2 blog post tomorrow evening but, in the meantime, follow me on Twitter (@treyhardin16) for realtime observations and developments.  Thank you.

Trey Hardin

 

Tags: advocacy, Elections 2012, Iowa, Iowa Caucus, Politics, Regulatory Environment, Romney, White House