Our Thinking

Posted 02/02/10 by Lizanne Sadlier

Let the races begin…

Topic(s): The War Room   

Tuesday, February 2, marks the beginning of the 2010 elections.  Illinois, the home state of President Barack Obama, hosts the first primary in the nation.  This will be followed a month later by a big primary in Texas.  Then the primary season begins in earnest in May, with a majority of states holding their elections before the end of June.

Illinois will give us another glimpse into the mood of the electorate heading into the 2010 elections.  While previous elections have had national themes, the races in Illinois are focused on local issues as well.  Voters here seem to be angry over a massive budget deficit, increased taxes and corruption at the state capital.

It will be interesting to see if the elections in Illinois follow a trend we have seen over the past months.  It appears that political insiders – whether they are incumbents or perceived establishment candidates – will have to fight hard to win what might have been comfortable victories a few months ago.  Voters are not happy with incumbents of either party.  However, it looks like Republicans will face this dynamic more in the primaries than in the general election; where Democrats, as the party in power, will have to face this in both elections.

Governor’s Race

Democrat Governor Pat Quinn, who took over a year ago after the impeachment of Rod Blagojevich, is deadlocked in his race for a full term.  A poll last week showed Quinn trailing state Comptroller Dan Hynes 40 percent to 41 percent.  In a last ditch effort over the weekend, Quinn blasted Hynes for knowingly hiding grave desecration at an African American cemetery and his father leaving the Democrat party in the 80’s.  In the Republican race, state Sen. Kirk Dillard and former state GOP chair Andy McKenna are the front-runners in a five-way primary.  McKenna came out with an ad last week with clips of a 2008 Obama ad of Dillard praising the soon to be president.  In a poll last week, Dillard led McKenna by two points.

Senate Race

The winner of this race will be the permanent replacement for President Barack Obama.  On the Republican side, there was talk that Rep. Mark Kirk would face a strong primary challenge from the right; however, that hasn’t materialized as his opponent has lacked funding.  Kirk is polling at about 50% and looks sure to win tonight’s primary.   Kirk will be in a good position heading into November as he has strong appeal to independents, yet he will likely be labeled as the Washington insider in the race.

The drama has certainly been on the Democrat side.  The appointment process to fill the seat left open by the election of President Obama became very ugly, led to the impeachment of Governor Blagojevich and the realization that the appointee was in no position to run for the full term.  After this, it was not surprising that Democrats were unsuccessful in recruiting their top prospect to run.  They ended up with three good, but lesser-known, candidates in the Democrat primary – the frontrunner Alexi Giannoulis, the current state treasurer, David Hoffman, former inspector general of Chicago and Cheryle Jackson, President of the Chicago Urban League.  In polling last week, Giannoulis was ahead with 31% among likely voters, 23% for Hoffman and 13% for Jackson.  Hoffman has been up with ads hitting Giannoulis hard for his ties to former Gov. Blagojevich and convicted felon Tony Rezko.  In the last week of the campaign, Giannoulis was forced to answer questions about his role in his family’s failing bank, which was given a warning to reorganize by federal regulators.  It is possible that Giannoulis will hold on and win tonight, but he will enter the general election battered and will face more scrutiny for his role in the family bank and his ties to Blagojevich, who goes on trial in June.

House races

IL-10 – In the race to replace Rep. Mark Kirk, there is battle in the Republican primary between an establishment candidate in the mold of Mark Kirk, St. Rep. Beth Coulson, and two conservative outsiders, Dick Green and Bob Dold.  On the Democratic side, insider state Rep. Julie Hamos and Dan Seals, who lost to Kirk twice, are facing off.  This seat has never been safe for Republicans and the eventual Republican nominee will have a tough time keeping it in their column.

IL-14 – After losing this seat in a special election to replace former Speaker Denny Hastert, Republicans have had their eye on re-taking it.  Ethan Hastert, son of the former Speaker, has taken heat for his inside-Washington fundraising and support in his primary race against St. Sen. Randy Hultgren.  Hultgren has received many newspaper endorsements and support from conservative groups.  The winner will take on freshman Rep. Bill Foster in November.

There are key primaries in two districts that Republicans hope to be battlegrounds in November – IL-08, the seat Democrat Melissa Bean took from Republicans in 2004; and IL-11, represented by freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson, which was in Republican hands until 2008.

President Obama has not been active in the primaries here, not even in support of the incumbent Governor.  After Tuesday’s election, it will be interesting to see how active a role he takes in saving his Senate seat.

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